For Obama, McCain, a Shortlist on Running Mates: Albert R. Hunt

Commentary by Albert R. Hunt

May 19 (Bloomberg) -- Over the past 50 years, 17 men and one woman have been chosen by the major parties to run for the vice presidency of the U.S. Only one -- Lyndon Johnson in 1960 -- demonstrably affected the outcome of the presidential race.

This is worth remembering as the nation enters the quadrennial feeding frenzy over completing the tickets. It's a big decision for Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama and will send important signals; it probably won't make much difference on Nov. 4.

``People vote for president, not vice president,'' says Stu Spencer, who directed the campaigns of Gerald Ford in 1976 and Ronald Reagan in 1980.

``The politics of picking a vice president are constantly overstated,'' adds Richard Moe, who was Vice President Walter Mondale's chief of staff and now heads the National Trust for Historic Preservation. ``But the decision does tell us much about how that person will tend to govern and what his values are.''

As Moe and Spencer acknowledge, that doesn't mean there aren't political considerations, including comfort levels and contributions that a No. 2 person can make to the tone and effectiveness of a campaign. This is why two of the most oft- speculated possibilities -- Hillary Clinton on the Democratic side and Condoleezza Rice for the Republicans -- wouldn't work.

The diatribes last week from the Clinton camp after Senator Edward M. Kennedy said an Obama-Clinton ticket was ``not possible,'' suggests they want Obama to ask her. That may be so the New York senator, 60, can reject it.

`Masochistic' Choice

Worse for Obama would be if he asked and she said yes. ``It would be masochistic for him to bring Billary to the White House,'' says Harry McPherson, who was counsel to President Johnson and is one of Washington's wisemen. ``It's like Macbeth or maybe a second-rate Elizabethan horror drama.''

Just picture the stage on the final night of the Democratic National Convention in Denver on Aug. 28: Barack, Michelle, Hillary... and Bill. Sorry.

Obama, 46, an Illinois senator, should also ignore advice that he pick someone who can carry a particular state.

In 1988, Texas Democrat Lloyd Bentsen was a good choice; still, the ticket was clobbered nationally and in the Lone Star state. Other than Johnson, the only vice presidential candidate in the last half-century who clearly changed the outcome of a state was Ed Muskie in his native Maine in 1968; his ticket lost the general election.

No Rookies

Also, neither McCain nor Obama should pick someone who has never run for office. Politics is tougher than it looks; it's no place for novices.

Thus, Carly Fiorina or Condi Rice, both attractive potential candidates, aren't realistic possibilities. Moreover, the last thing McCain wants is to pick someone associated with this historically unpopular president: That would rule out George W. Bush's former budget director, Rob Portman.

What both McCain and Obama want is a selection that will be viewed as uplifting and address a potential vulnerability.

Some clearly meet that criteria, starting with Johnson in 1960. Democrats Al Gore 1992 and Mondale in 1976 gave a lift to the presidential nominees, as did Republicans George Herbert Walker Bush in 1980 and Dick Cheney in 2000.

Quayle, Ferraro

Just as often, a vice presidential choice hasn't mattered. No one would argue that Dan Quayle was an uplifting choice for the first President Bush, who nonetheless won a convincing victory in the general election. Likewise, while Geraldine Ferraro, the first woman selected, wasn't the asset that Mondale hoped for in 1984, any ticket he assembled would have been trounced that year.

As for vulnerabilities, Obama needs a running mate with national security credentials. The inexperience card, which McCain will stress repeatedly, isn't about tax policy or health care; it's about foreign policy.

If there's a traumatic incident on Oct. 20, it'll be more reassuring to nervous voters if Obama has a national security heavyweight by his side.

For McCain, 71, there are two prerequisites: someone who isn't identified with the Bush administration -- if the McCain mantra will be inexperience, the Obama drum will beat about a third Bush term -- and who has some credibility on economic and domestic issues, not among the Arizona senator's strengths.

Premature Talk?

Although both candidates are thinking about this decision, people close to both of them insist that talk of a shortlist is premature. Fair enough. Yet it's also not hard to guess where these two smart guys will end up.

For Obama, here's a good bet for a shortlist: former Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Sam Nunn, a favorite of the party's conservative wing; current Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Joe Biden; Reagan's former Navy secretary and now Virginia Democratic Senator Jim Webb; and New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg.

(Bloomberg is the principal owner of Bloomberg LP. I thought talk of his independent presidential run was quixotic, yet while he might not want it -- he's not a natural No. 2 -- he would bring economic and security heft to a ticket.)

McCain's list would include former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, even with their frosty personal relations during the presidential campaign; Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty -- if he can avoid silly moments like talking on a radio show about his lack of a sex life with his wife -- and Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman.

Lieberman, who ran as the Democratic vice presidential nominee in 2000, is now an Independent and a McCain supporter. If McCain thinks the social right of the Republican Party won't bolt even though Lieberman has been pro-choice on abortion and pro-gay rights, a good hunch is this is his personal preference.

If you disagree, send in your own shortlist.

(Albert R. Hunt is the executive editor for Washington at Bloomberg News. The opinions expressed are his own.)

To contact the writer of this column: Albert R. Hunt in Washington at ahunt1@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: May 18, 2008 08:53 EDT

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